It is anticipated that Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) will announce the addition of approximately 2 million subscribers in Q1, with investors keeping a close eye on the impact of recent price reductions and introducing an ad-supported plan on subscriber numbers. After losing 200,000 subscribers in the same quarter last year, the company returned to subscriber growth in H2 2022. However, the pace of additions has slowed significantly. As a result, Netflix has been seeking ways to generate revenue from the 100 million users who do not pay for the service, such as cracking down on password-sharing in certain countries. This approach may lead to some people discontinuing the service initially, but analysts suggest they will likely return. According to Refinitiv, 16 analysts predict that Netflix will add 3.43 million subscribers in the April-June period, compared to a loss of 970,000 subscribers in the same quarter last year. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett suggested that the crackdown will have a more significant impact in Q2, potentially resulting in more than 10 million new subscribers as free users are converted to paid subscribers.
In the first quarter that ended on March 31, Netflix is expected to have added a net total of 2.07 million subscribers, a significant improvement compared to the loss of 200,000 subscribers in the same period last year. The company has stopped providing forecasts for this metric.
According to Refinitiv, Netflix's revenue growth for the first quarter is expected to be nearly 4%, which would be the second-slowest growth rate the company has seen after a 2% increase in the December quarter. In Q1, there were no significant releases. Still, according to Jefferies, non-English language shows like the Korean revenge drama "The Glory" and the third season of the Mexican drama "La Reina del Sur" performed well.
In November last year, Netflix introduced a streaming plan with ads for $6.99 per month in 12 countries after resisting commercials for several years. Other streaming services like Disney's Hulu and Disney+, and HBO Max have already introduced ad-supported options.
According to social media analytics firm Antenna, the role of advertising is increasingly becoming significant for premium streaming services as part of their profitable growth strategies. In 2020, only one in five new sign-ups were for ad-supported plans, whereas last year, it increased to nearly one in three.
