When President George W. Bush secured his second term, the guessing game began about the revamped Bush Cabinet.
Indeed, almost immediately after the election, rumors flew that controversial Attorney General John Ashcroft and popular Secretary of State Colin Powell would be vacating their posts. The rumors turned out to be accurate. Citing personal reasons, Ashcroft resigned from his position earlier this month. The much-liked Powell, a moderate voice who frequently butted heads with hawkish members of the Bush team on foreign policy matters, also stepped down, seeking to return to ''private life.'' With the resignations of two prominent Cabinet members, the speculation continues over who will surface in the new second-term Cabinet.
Already six of Bush's 15 Cabinet members will not be serving in Bush's second term, including Commerce Secretary Don Evans, Education Secretary Rod Paige, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge also is expected to leave his Cabinet post.
Dr. David McCuan, professor of political science at Sonoma State University in California, believes Bush's second term will center on building a legacy in the next four years. The White House will try to go back to the themes that were so successful in 2000 and in the wake of the 9-11 attacks. Bush as the ''uniter, not the divider,'' Dr. McCuan said. ''If the primary task is securing a legacy, that means the political task at hand is putting together a team to secure that legacy.''
He said the legacy of the Bush family is what will guide the team, rather than the bidding of one group, such as Evangelical Christians or Conservative Republicans. The end goal, he said, is ensuring President Bush leaves his second term as a ''preeminent leader'' of the free world. ''Bush is a captive of history, and his chief political architect of that legacy, Karl Rove, understands this distinction all too well.''
President Bush has already begun to assemble his second term Cabinet team. National security adviser Condoleezza Rice, one of Bush's closest advisers, will likely replace Powell as Secretary of State. If confirmed, she will be the first black woman to assume the position. Rice's deputy, Stephen Hadley, has been named to take her job as national security adviser. Top White House lawyer and trusted Bush friend Alberto Gonzales has been named to replace Ashcroft as Attorney General and, if confirmed, will become the first Hispanic-American to serve as the top, federal law-enforcement official.
''There will be more attempts at growing the cabinet's diversity, and that means the Administration will grow the 'electoral diversity' of the cabinet, seeking secretaries who support the President's policies, but grow the legacy towards the end of the term and into the next electoral cycle,'' said Dr. McCuan. ''It will not be a diversity of views nor one of gender. The Administration will seek candidates who can deliver votes and leadership towards that legacy.''
White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card, Jr., who served in the administrations of both President Reagan and the first President Bush, will remain in the job. Card is expected to help President Bush assemble his second-term Cabinet. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is also expected to remain in the job for the start of Bush's new term, although there is speculation as to whether he will remain the full four years.
Dr. McCuan said that Americans can expect a few more chairs to be reshuffled in the process of reshaping the Cabinet. He cited Rod Paige in education as the latest example, but also said Gerald Parsky, chair of the Bush campaign in California during both the 2000 and 2004 campaigns, could replace Secretary of the Treasury John Snow. ''Even if Snow doesn't move on, expect that Parsky will latch on somewhere in the Administration.''
Dr. McCuan noted that after the 2000 campaign, the Bush team brought Tommy Thompson and Tom Ridge into the Administration, two examples of attempts to eliminate a number of potential rivals to the President. ''Looking to the 28 GOP-owned governorships, including those owned by Republican governors in the 4 largest states -- CA, TX, NY, and FL -- I would expect to see Bob Taft of Ohio as a name frequently mentioned for potential jobs in the Administration, as well as that of Craig Benson, a relatively young, former business leader and current Governor of New Hampshire.''
Dr. McCuan added that the administration could place Taft and Benson in low-profile jobs but that those appointments would largely depend on what happens with Bush's core team.
Meanwhile, moderate Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the only Republican for abortion rights on the Judiciary Committee, is preparing to chair the Judiciary Committee when Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, will leave the post next year because of term limits. Specter hopes to become chair of the committee that considers President Bush's judicial nominations. Specter made headlines when he warned Bush against appointing Supreme Court nominees who would seek to overturn abortion rights or are too conservative to secure confirmation. The comments alarmed conservative Republicans who have worked to block Specter's bid to head the Senate Judiciary Committee.
''It was a courageous step on Senator Specter's part, although he backpedaled quickly when he was challenged,'' said Dr. Atkinson. ''It does indicate that party discipline is less reliable in our system than in parliamentary systems and that the precedent established in the cases favoring reproductive freedom for women is strong. One can't always expect strict party line votes on judicial nominees.''
In addition to Cabinet changes, at least three Supreme Court justices are rumored to be considering retirement, including ailing Chief Justice William Rehnquist. If Specter assumes position as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he could have broad authority to reshape the nation's highest court.
''The country will be advantaged if the President is wise enough to appoint moderates to the U.S. Supreme Court,'' said Dr. Atkinson. ''It would be a considerable step toward bringing the country together; otherwise it will be enormously divisive.''
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